Willow project

2023 - 3 - 17

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Image courtesy of "Grist"

The dubious economic calculus behind the Willow Project (Grist)

The Willow Project is supposed to secure energy independence and Alaskan prosperity. It probably won't achieve either.

How can that be the same world that needs 600 million new barrels of oil from Willow? Zooming out, Wight said, the project signals to Alaskans, oil companies, and the rest of the world that the United States believes there will still be a market for Conoco’s oil three decades from now. Second, the particular kind of oil that Willow will produce isn’t a perfect substitute for the oil that the U.S. [third-most oil-reliant state in the nation](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/07/climate/california-fossil-fuel-tax-revenue.html), behind Wyoming and North Dakota. The Alaska Native Village of Nuiqsut is going to be Nuiqsut’s mayor has been vocally opposed to the Willow Project, and local tribal leaders passed a resolution opposing it in 2019. Furthermore, the project’s position on the North Slope of Alaska will constrain potential demand for the new crude from refineries on the U.S. The Department of Revenue’s recent analysis shows the North Slope will get $1.3 billion through 2053, and the cash will start flowing in the coming months. Not only will the Willow Project provide an insufficient substitute for Russian oil, but it will also deliver an ambiguous mix of costs and benefits to Alaska state coffers, which have long relied on fossil fuel revenue that is increasingly hard to come by — even with new drilling in the Arctic. Indeed, the federal Bureau of Land Management’s own analysis found that Willow’s effect on the global energy market and American energy independence will be muted. [approve the massive Willow oil project](https://grist.org/energy/biden-approves-willow-oil-project-alaska/) earlier this week infuriated climate advocates and environmentalists while drawing praise from Alaska politicians and oil industry figures. It’s possible the global oil supply picture will look very different by then: Western countries may have access to new sources of oil, like recent offshore projects in places like Guyana, and where crude prices will be is anyone’s guess.

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Image courtesy of "The Washington Post"

The real debate over the Willow oil project, explained (The Washington Post)

The Alaskan oil project is a symbol of a larger argument: What matters more, curbing demand or keeping fossil fuels in the ground?

If we count the emissions both at the point of extraction and at the point of consumption, that amounts to double-counting. But for activists and environmentalists, any amount of economic discussion doesn’t change a few simple facts: The United States has promised to reach net-zero carbon emissions, but is still extracting oil. In the days after the decision, many outlets reported that the project’s estimated 9.2 millions tons of carbon dioxide per year were equivalent to adding roughly Most emissions are counted at the point of consumption — that is, when drivers put the oil in their cars and burn it for fuel. [report](https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/partners-not-rivals-the-power-of-parallel-supply-side-and-demand-side-climate-policy/) published last year by Resources for the Future, Prest argued that the best approach is “both/and." The Biden administration, however, has not taken drastic steps to cut fossil fuel supply, even as the government spends hundreds of billions of dollars boosting clean energy. What matters more — cutting fossil fuel demand, by encouraging consumers to shift to things like renewable energy and electric vehicles, or tamping down on supply by preventing oil and gas drilling in the United States? During the 2020 presidential campaign, Biden had promised to prevent new oil and gas drilling on federal lands — a vow that runs contrary to his administration’s approval of ConocoPhillips’s operation, known as Willow, in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. If the government offers a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles, for example, that will push people away from gas-powered cars and reduce demand for fossil fuels — thus lowering the cost of oil and gas. “I ultimately think it’s more efficient and effective to go from the demand side,” Gross said. The Biden administration, with its huge investments in a build-out of clean energy, has largely focused on the former. “There’s plenty of oil and gas in the world,” said Samantha Gross, director of the energy security and climate initiative at the Brookings Institution.

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Image courtesy of "WOKV"

Biden climate legacy tested by backlash over Willow project (WOKV)

“In that moment, I felt a lot of hope that the administration was listening to us," said Joshi, a California college student who is a leader of Gen-Z for Change ...

“We’ve seen time and time again that the public has not absorbed the enormity of what Biden has done on climate so far," she said. The interview aired on Monday night, several hours after the Willow decision was announced. The one thing that millions of people wrote in asking you not to do over the last three weeks?” But the youngest Democrats, ages 18 through 34, were less favorable on both marks. Dan Sullivan told Fox News that he pressed Biden on how he could justify blocking Willow when the administration also lifted sanctions to allow oil imports from Venezuela, which Sullivan called “one of the most polluting places to produce oil anywhere in the world.” White House officials said there's inevitable friction with activists, who always push for more urgent measures. [video explaining the Willow decision](https://twitter.com/SecDebHaaland/status/1635428951047766017?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet) was viewed more than 100,000 times on Twitter as of Thursday afternoon. [A TikTok video](https://www.tiktok.com/@alex.haraus/video/7210241925385882926) by environmentalist Alex Haraus was viewed more than 270,000 times. from meeting Biden's ambitious goal for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and a recent government study said the country will be able to produce 80% of its electricity without fossil fuels by 2030. Biden responded by urging companies to produce more oil in the United States. White House officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, acknowledged the indignation over Willow, which became a focal point for activism in recent weeks. Regulators focused on paring down the project's footprint during the approval process.

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Image courtesy of "Carnegie Endowment for International Peace"

The Willow Project and the Race to Pump the “Last Barrel” of Oil (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

Noah J. Gordon is acting co-director of the Sustainability, Climate, and Geopolitics Program and a fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for ...

[overstated](https://direct.mit.edu/glep/article/20/4/4/95068/Prisoners-of-the-Wrong-Dilemma-Why-Distributive) the extent to which climate change is a collective action problem. [geoengineering](https://www.c2g2.net/solar-radiation-modification/) they are counting on to close the gap between the oil they intend to produce and the level of warming they are prepared to accept. In other words, just as high carbon taxes that reduce the demand for oil are difficult to pass, supply restrictions to impose a “ [shadow](https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-case-against-restricting-domestic) carbon price” are scary to countenance. Inflation Reduction Act took an important step forward by [increasing tax credits](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/07/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-prepared-for-delivery/) for carbon capture, removal, and storage, but government officials could be more clear about the difference between emission cuts and negative emissions—and their separate plans for each. [rebound effect](https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1093/reep/rev017?journalCode=reep). In the real world, the Western Hemisphere will not allow Western Asia to produce nearly all of the oil for a much smaller oil market in 2050. [mid-transition](https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.768),” where fossil-fuel and zero-carbon systems have to coexist while constraining each other. This also is a reason that coalitions like the [Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance](https://beyondoilandgasalliance.org/who-we-are/), whose members pledge to phase out fossil fuel production, comprise countries with minimal fossil fuel revenues (such as Denmark or Costa Rica). Strictly speaking, the task isn’t to get to the last barrel of oil anytime soon: according to one report, the world could produce 40 million barrels of oil a day [in 2040](https://productiongap.org/2021report/#2021downloads) and still be on track to keep warming to 1.5 degrees. If Willow produces as much oil over thirty years as expected, the consumption of that oil would release the equivalent of [277 million tons](https://eplanning.blm.gov/eplanning-ui/project/109410/570) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Alaskan legislators suggested they may challenge those “legally dubious” restrictions on future oil extraction, while environmental groups are preparing [lawsuits](https://www.eenews.net/articles/bidens-green-allies-promise-lawsuit-over-alaska-oil-project/) to try to stop the project. [Willow project](https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/03/13/willow-project-alaska-biden-conocophillips/), a massive operation that will allow ConocoPhillips to drill for oil on public land in Alaska.

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Image courtesy of "Earthjustice"

The Willow Project Has Been Approved. Now What? (Earthjustice)

The system that greenlights oil-drilling on public lands is broken. Here's how to fix it and avoid more carbon bombs.

President Biden has the authority to directly ramp down climate pollution from this sector and could take a significant bite out of global carbon emissions with a single rulemaking. [keeping oil and gas reserves in the ground must be a part of the solution](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/opinion/willow-oil-project-alaska-climate-change.html) too. If no action is taken, it is inevitable that extraction projects will proliferate across our nation’s great open spaces, undercutting the climate progress made through investments in clean energy and infrastructure. This new approach could also mean making a large area of public lands unavailable for leasing to begin with. When it comes to fossil fuel extraction on public lands, the U.S. Clearly, this is a broken system in need of repair. Yet the government’s Willow decision is a worrisome harbinger of what could be to come, as new fossil-fuel projects are on track to win approval just as they always have — even from agencies operating under a president who has repeatedly promised bold climate action and a transition to clean energy. Approval came in the form of a hefty agency document known as a Record of Decision, landing with a thud that reverberated across the Internet to the more than 5 million people who signed online petitions urging President Biden to stick to his climate promises and halt Willow. The petroleum located beneath the seafloor in the leasing area for Lease Sale 259 could produce more than 1 billion barrels of oil, and 4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Willow is only the beginning of ConocoPhillips’ sprawling plans for Alaska’s Western Arctic, an open swath of tundra where polar bears, caribou, and musk oxen roam. All told the project is estimated to produce 260 million metric tons of heat-trapping gases over 30 years. The administration gave the go-ahead to ConocoPhillips’ Willow project in Alaska’s Western Arctic, a massive, decades-long oil drilling endeavor.

What's next for Alaska's Willow oil project? AP explains (Yahoo News)

The Biden administration's approval earlier this week of the largest new oil project in years on Alaska's petroleum-rich North Slope was immediately met by ...

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Image courtesy of "WNIJ and WNIU"

Markey calls Biden's decision to back the Willow Project 'an ... (WNIJ and WNIU)

The Biden administration approved a major oil extraction project in Alaska, a decision that has divided Democrats. NPR's Ari Shapiro talks with Sen.

MARKEY: Well, in the amount of time it would take big oil to finally fulfill their long broken promise of making us energy independent, we could replace that demand for dirty oil with the demand for clean energy like wind and solar and all-electric vehicles and battery storage technologies. And by the time, you know, we have finished this battle, we will have seen the big oil business plan destroyed, both here and around the world. MARKEY: Well, I'm glad to see that there are bold advocates in Alaska and across the country who are willing to do everything in their power to reverse this decision. Is there a danger that if the U.S. What additional consequences are there to the additions to not only what damage we are doing to the planet, but what example it's sending to other countries in the world? Do you think the thousands of jobs that supporters say it will create are not worth the trade-off?

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Image courtesy of "PBS NewsHour"

WATCH: White House holds news briefing amid backlash over ... (PBS NewsHour)

WASHINGTON (AP) — White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre held a news briefing on Thursday as President Joe Biden faces criticism over his ...

Dan Sullivan told Fox News that he pressed Biden on how he could justify blocking Willow when the administration also lifted sanctions to allow oil imports from Venezuela, which Sullivan called “one of the most polluting places to produce oil anywhere in the world.” The interview aired on Monday night, several hours after the Willow decision was announced. “This is a very high profile project, and he is suffering from a lack of enthusiasm. The one thing that millions of people wrote in asking you not to do over the last three weeks?” But the youngest Democrats, ages 18 through 34, were less favorable on both marks. from meeting Biden’s ambitious goal for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and a recent government study said the country will be able to produce 80% of its electricity without fossil fuels by 2030. White House officials said there’s inevitable friction with activists, who always push for more urgent measures. White House officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, acknowledged the indignation over Willow, which became a focal point for activism in recent weeks. Willow could generate 180,000 barrels a day once it becomes operational in the coming years. “You approved Willow. Regulators focused on paring down the project’s footprint during the approval process. “There is disappointment.

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Image courtesy of "Alaska Public Media News"

Willow oil project approval intensifies Alaska Natives' rift (Alaska Public Media News)

Some say that oil money can't counter the damages caused by climate change, but others defend the project as economically vital.

“That’s the walk our leaders have to walk,” said Patkotak, an independent who supported Willow. Alaska’s bipartisan congressional delegation met with Biden and his advisers in early March to plead their case for the project, and Alaska Native lawmakers also met with Haaland to urge support. Willow is in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, a vast region on Alaska’s resource-rich North Slope that is roughly the size of Maine. A second lawsuit seeking to block the project was filed Wednesday by Greenpeace and other environmental groups. to be ready to meet with Haaland just two hours later. For Alaska Natives to reconcile their points of view with one another, it will take discussions. Many communities on Alaska’s North Slope celebrated the project’s approval, citing new jobs and the influx of money that will help support schools, other public services and infrastructure investments in their isolated villages. … It is a matter of our survival.” The community is about 36 miles from the Willow project. Haaland visited the North Slope last fall, just hours after state Rep. “They are payoffs for the loss of our health and culture,” the Nuiqsut leaders wrote. “I could say that the majority of the people, the majority of our community and the majority of the people were excited about the Willow Project,” she said.

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Image courtesy of "Gizmodo"

The Dubious Economic Calculus Behind the Willow Project (Gizmodo)

The ConocoPhillips venture is supposed to secure energy independence and Alaskan prosperity. It probably won't achieve either.

[Grist](https://grist.org/) at [https://grist.org/energy/willow-project-economic-benefits-alaska-energy-independence/](https://grist.org/energy/willow-project-economic-benefits-alaska-energy-independence/). [decrease in revenue](https://alaskabeacon.com/2023/03/15/willow-development-expected-to-be-a-money-loser-for-the-alaska-treasury-in-early-years/). [third most oil-reliant state in the nation](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/07/climate/california-fossil-fuel-tax-revenue.html), behind Wyoming and North Dakota. How can that be the same world that needs 600 million new barrels of oil from Willow? [picture is changing](https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/572829-alaska-plots-its-post-oil-financial-future/). Second, the particular kind of oil that Willow will produce isn’t a perfect substitute for the oil that the U.S. Furthermore, the project’s position on the North Slope of Alaska will constrain potential demand for the new crude from refineries on the U.S. Indeed, the federal Bureau of Land Management’s own analysis found that Willow’s effect on the global energy market and American energy independence will be muted. [approve the massive Willow oil project](https://grist.org/energy/biden-approves-willow-oil-project-alaska/) earlier this week infuriated climate advocates and environmentalists while drawing praise from Alaska politicians and oil industry figures. Not only will the Willow project provide an insufficient substitute for Russian oil, but it will also deliver an ambiguous mix of costs and benefits to Alaska state coffers, which have long relied on fossil fuel revenue that is increasingly hard to come by — even with new drilling in the Arctic. It’s possible the global oil supply picture will look very different by then: Western countries may have access to new sources of oil, like recent offshore projects in places like Guyana, and where crude prices will be is anyone’s guess. You can [subscribe to its weekly newsletter here](https://go.grist.org/signup/weekly?utm_campaign=signup-page&utm_medium=web&utm_source=grist&utm_content=weekly).

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Image courtesy of "Center For American Progress"

After Getting Willow Project Wrong, Biden Must Get These Climate ... (Center For American Progress)

President Biden and his team must cement new protections for U.S. lands and waters, secure additional climate progress, and prevent bad decisions such as ...

[little known to some Americans](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/conservation-action-can-win-over-the-media-and-the-public/), the U.S. Namely, it’s time for President Biden to finally protect [Avi Kwa Ame](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/protecting-avi-kwa-ame-as-a-national-monument-would-honor-tribes-and-increase-access-to-nature/), [Castner Range](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/making-castner-range-a-national-monument-would-help-nature-deprived-communities/), and other lands primed for action, consistent with the promise of his “ [America the Beautiful](https://www.doi.gov/priorities/america-the-beautiful)” initiative. [finalized in January 2023](https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2023/01/25/biden-harris-administration-finalizes-protections-tongass-national), to conserve the Tongass National Forest—the world’s largest intact temperate rainforest—the Biden administration should [initiate a climate rulemaking](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/executive-action-vs-the-nature-crisis-top-8-opportunities/#chapter-issue-a-national-forest-climate-rule-and-conserve-old-forests-across-public-lands-23) that affords clear protections for old and mature forests. Nearly a year ago, President Biden [issued an executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2022/04/22/executive-order-on-strengthening-the-nations-forests-communities-and-local-economies/) directing Cabinet members responsible for the nation’s forests to conserve these carbon-storing and biodiversity powerhouses. We work to protect our lands, waters, ocean, and wildlife to address the linked climate and biodiversity crises. [announced](https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/biden-harris-administration-announces-sweeping-protections-16-million-acres-land-and) that it will begin a rule to increase protections in the Western Arctic, the site of the Willow drilling project and the largest stretch of undeveloped land in the United States. Despite a mandate to manage these lands for the use and enjoyment of present and future generations, roughly [90 percent of BLM lands remain open to oil and gas leasing and development](https://www.wilderness.org/articles/article/open-business-and-not-much-else-analysis-shows-oil-and-gas-leasing-out-whack-blm-lands) and lack comprehensive rules to guide their conservation. [approving the Willow drilling project](https://www.americanprogress.org/press/statement-willow-project-approval-is-a-mistake-caps-jenny-rowland-shea-says/). [set the most ambitious conservation goal of any president](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/why-conserving-30x30-is-more-than-a-numbers-game/) by committing to conserving 30 percent of U.S. To prevent this mistake from repeating itself again and again, the Biden administration should seize the opportunity to fix a broken system to ensure that it factors in climate risk for federal oil and gas leasing and permitting. At the same time, it should ensure that future proposals to drill in the Western Arctic are in line with U.S. While there are no one-for-one tradeoffs to make it right, this column details four near-term opportunities for President Biden to protect public lands and the climate.

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Image courtesy of "WOKV"

Haaland criticized over 'difficult' choice on Willow project (WOKV)

Less than two weeks later, the Biden administration announced it was approving Willow, an $8 billion drilling plan by ConocoPhillips on Alaska's petroleum-rich ...

Goldtooth and others involved in the Willow fight say the project was largely advanced by Beaudreau, Haaland's deputy, who grew up in Alaska and has a close relationship with the state's two Republican senators. The Willow project has divided Alaska Native groups. She also committed to taking a broader look at how federal land across the region can be better managed while taking into account environmental effects and cultural preservation. Environmental groups call the project a "carbon bomb" that would betray pledges made by Biden — and Haaland — to fight climate change and have mounted a social media [#StopWillow campaign](https://apnews.com/article/alaska-oil-biden-tiktok-willow-climate-conocophillips-0d6837053e703fa3b3c7084646e7d5d9) that has been seen hundreds of millions of times. Native American tribes in the Southwestern U.S. But in a statement, the department said Haaland had been “actively involved” in the Willow decision from the start and met with Alaska Natives on both sides of the issue, conservation and other groups and members of Congress. Despite the White House involvement, Haaland has come under fire for the decision to approve Willow. “That includes an appearance with members of the Alaska Federation of Natives who were in town the week before the announcement,” the department said. Haaland, who had not publicly commented on Willow in two years as head of the U.S. "I've seen this play run before,'' including when former Biden environmental justice adviser Cecilia Martinez was put forward to address tribal concerns about two other energy projects, the Biden himself has not spoken publicly on the project. Many Native groups in Alaska support Willow as a job creator and economic lifeline.

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Image courtesy of "The Washington Post"

What is Willow? How an Alaska oil project could impact the ... (The Washington Post)

Alaska's Willow is the largest U.S. oil project under consideration. Why did Biden approve new Arctic drilling despite pledges to stop drilling on public ...

His biggest climate policies so far have focused more on building out and [encouraging consumers ](https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/03/16/willow-project-climate-biden/?itid=lk_inline_manual_37)to adopt cleaner energy than they have on limiting fossil-fuel production. [of additional CO2 from the project](https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/03/16/willow-project-climate-biden/?itid=lk_inline_manual_27) in U.S. It shrunk the project from the five pads ConocoPhillips had originally proposed following [recommendations from a government review](https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/02/01/alaska-willow-project-oil-drilling-climate/?itid=lk_inline_manual_17) to keep development out of a yellow-billed loon nesting site and caribou migration paths. emissions — and another 60 million tons internationally — equivalent to just [0.03 percent](https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks) of U.S. [top priority for climate activists](https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2023/03/07/stop-willow-tiktok-biden-alaska/?itid=lk_inline_manual_16). They are pushing to [reduce fossil-fuel consumption](https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/03/16/willow-project-climate-biden/?itid=lk_inline_manual_16) as a way to cut the emissions that cause climate change, and have tried to stop major investments like this as a way to push the world away from oil. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Rep. For Alaskan leaders and some residents it was the most important federal decision facing their state, with many [clamoring for it as an economic boon](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/03/alaska-lawmakers-up-pressure-biden-approve-massive-oil-project/?itid=lk_inline_manual_5). If rejected, ConocoPhillips could have sued, potentially won billions of dollars at taxpayer expense, and still been able to develop the project anyway, legal experts have said. But access to oil like that could also help prolong the country’s reliance on fossil fuels, with no guarantee the technology will be in place to stop their contribution to climate change. That is important for limiting the country’s and its allies’ reliance on oil suppliers often run under authoritarian regimes and weak environmental regulation. Willow’s plan includes hundreds of miles of roads and pipelines, airstrips, a gravel mine, and a new processing facility in the middle of pristine Arctic tundra and wetland.

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Image courtesy of "PBS NewsHour"

Interior Secretary Haaland criticized over 'difficult' choice on Willow ... (PBS NewsHour)

Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is facing criticism from political allies after the Biden administration approved a contentious oil drilling project in ...

“The Western Arctic is one of the last great wild landscapes on the planet and as public land it belongs to every American,” Heinrich said in a statement. Hartl, of the biological diversity group, said Willow was approved by the White House for clear political reasons. “As a result, we have limited decision space,” she said, adding that officials focused on reducing the project’s footprint and minimizing impacts to people and wildlife. The Willow project has divided Alaska Native groups. She also committed to taking a broader look at how federal land across the region can be better managed while taking into account environmental effects and cultural preservation. Despite the White House involvement, Haaland has been faulted for the decision to approve Willow. Haaland, who had not publicly commented on Willow in two years as head of the U.S. Goldtooth and others involved in the Willow fight say the project was largely advanced by Beaudreau, Haaland’s deputy, who grew up in Alaska and has a close relationship with the state’s two Republican senators. Gathering at Interior headquarters a half-mile (0.8 kilometers) from the White House, leaders of major environmental organizations and Indigenous groups pleaded with Haaland, the first Native American Cabinet member, to use her authority to block the Willow oil project. Biden himself has not spoken publicly on the project. Many Native groups in Alaska support Willow as a job creator and economic lifeline. WASHINGTON (AP) — In early March, President Joe Biden met with members of Alaska’s bipartisan congressional delegation as they implored him to approve a contentious oil drilling project in their state.

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