Nuggets vs Warriors

We break down Sunday night's game between the Nuggets and Warriors, providing our best bet and favorite player prop bet for this Western Conference clash.

Warriors games have gone OVER 56 percent of the time this season (42-33-3), while Denver games have gone UNDER 52.6 percent of the time (40-36-1). The biggest thing the Nuggets have going for them: they possess the best overall weapon in the NBA in Jokic, a 7-footer averaging a triple-double and shooting 64 percent from the floor. We had Jokic playing, Denver covering, and the MVP race tightening up once again to make it a thrilling finish for the history books — but now that Jokic is doubtful, we have the Warriors prevailing and covering and Joker losing the MVP race. Whether Jokic plays or not, Murray will need to step up for the Nuggets to prevail over the defending champs. Not surprisingly, oddsmakers give the nod to the second-most winningest home team in the NBA behind Memphis (and just ahead of Golden State). That's why Golden State has fallen to Denver both times they have met so far this season, 128-123 in Golden State back in October and 134-117 in Denver in early February. The Nuggets are better away from home (19-19) — but not by much — and Denver's constant question mark remains its ability to execute offensively without Jokic on the floor. In fact, the only other team with worse than a 35 percent road cover rate are the 19-58 Spurs, who have covered just 12 of 38 games (31.6%). Since returning from a shoulder injury, reigning NBA Finals MVP Steph Curry has helped propel Golden State to third in the NBA in scoring (118.3 points per game), and a blistering 124.3 ppg over the Dubs' past three games. Jokic and the Nuggets are content to slow the pace down and play their style of half-court hoops, spreading the ball around and finding open shots. 2 in three-point shooting (38.4%) and passing (29.1 apg). [The latest on Nikola Jokic's calf injury ](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/nikola-jokic-calf-injury-timeline-return-date-updates-nuggets/dfnpbtgnwolpnfwfazsl9mck)